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Category: Bayesian Thinking

Bayesian thinking is about answering the right question – the probability of a hypothesis being true of false.

No. 16: Beware Caesar – Alcohol Consumption and Alzheimer’s Disease

Published research from respectable journals and reported by renowned press outlets can be very misleading and of questionable importance. But it helps keep funding for the researchers and readership for the news media.

Steve Ruberg Are You Sure?, Bayesian Thinking, Case Studies, Uncategorized 1 Comment March 15, 2020April 13, 2020 19 Minutes

No. 15: Subgroups, Multiplicity and Bayes – A Case Study

Alzheimer's Disease has had many failures, and various companies have had mixed results. Bayesian approaches can bring clarity to the inference and primary question: "Does this treatment work?"

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking, Case Studies, Subgroup Identification Leave a comment January 15, 2020March 30, 2020 10 Minutes

No. 13: Unconsciously Biased and Consciously Unbiased

Implicit models in the back of our minds can creep into explicit models creating biased predictions that have societal implications.

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking, Case Studies, Stats and Data Science Leave a comment November 7, 2019 4 Minutes

No. 12: Models – Implicit and Explicit

If we fail to acknowledge that we have biases and assumptions that influence our assessment of 'objective facts,' then we delude ourselves. Our perception of reality and how we judge evidence is colored by our beliefs which arise from our specific experiences.

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking, Stats and Data Science 3 Comments October 23, 2019November 15, 2019 7 Minutes

No. 11: Some Beliefs in Priors

The probability that the null hypothesis is true is 0.50. How should we interpret that and then write it down mathematically?

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking Leave a comment October 14, 2019October 14, 2019 14 Minutes

No. 10 – Always do Subgroup IDENTIFICATION

You may have heard, “Always do subgroup analysis, but never believe them.” Don't believe this.

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking, Case Studies, Subgroup Identification Leave a comment September 30, 2019 12 Minutes

No. 9: Case Study – Genetic Subgroups and CV Disease

The over-reliance on p-values can lead to misinterpretation of data and a $150 million bet on a subgroup with scant evidence.

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking, Case Studies, Subgroup Identification Leave a comment September 10, 2019January 7, 2020 10 Minutes

No. 8: Let’s Get Real – Bayes and Biomarkers

How do we know when an observed effect is real or spurious?

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking, Subgroup Identification 3 Comments September 1, 2019September 8, 2019 10 Minutes

No. 7: What does p<0.05 mean anyway?

Some people say, "A p-value=0.05 is not very much evidence against the null hypothesis." Well then, how much evidence is it?

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking Leave a comment August 20, 2019August 22, 2019 6 Minutes

No. 6: Détente – The Peaceful Co-Existence of Significance Levels and Bayes

pr(B|A) ≠ 1 – pr(A|B). Why do we act like it ?!

Steve Ruberg Bayesian Thinking Leave a comment July 31, 2019August 16, 2019 7 Minutes

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Stephen Ruberg, PhD

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  • No. 18: Analytics, Fast and Slow April 13, 2020
  • No. 17: Analytics, Data Science and Statistics – A Rose by Any Other Name … March 30, 2020
  • No. 16: Beware Caesar – Alcohol Consumption and Alzheimer’s Disease March 15, 2020

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