How do we know when an observed effect is real or spurious?
No. 8: Let’s Get Real – Bayes and Biomarkers
Category: Bayesian Thinking
Bayesian thinking is about answering the right question – the probability of a hypothesis being true of false.
No. 7: What does p<0.05 mean anyway?
Some people say, "A p-value=0.05 is not very much evidence against the null hypothesis." Well then, how much evidence is it?
No. 6: Détente – The Peaceful Co-Existence of Significance Levels and Bayes
pr(B|A) ≠ 1 – pr(A|B). Why do we act like it ?!
No. 5: pr(You’re Bayesian) > 0.50
For too long statisticians have been peddling pr(data|hypothesis) when scientists [indeed all of us] want pr(hypothesis|data).
