Implicit models in the back of our minds can creep into explicit models creating biased predictions that have societal implications.
If we fail to acknowledge that we have biases and assumptions that influence our assessment of 'objective facts,' then we delude ourselves. Our perception of reality and how we judge evidence is colored by our beliefs which arise from our specific experiences.
The probability that the null hypothesis is true is 0.50. How should we interpret that and then write it down mathematically?
The over-reliance on p-values can lead to misinterpretation of data and a $150 million bet on a subgroup with scant evidence.
How do we know when an observed effect is real or spurious?
pr(B|A) ≠ 1 – pr(A|B). Why do we act like it ?!