The probability that the null hypothesis is true is 0.50. How should we interpret that and then write it down mathematically?
You may have heard, “Always do subgroup analysis, but never believe them.” Don't believe this.
The over-reliance on p-values can lead to misinterpretation of data and a $150 million bet on a subgroup with scant evidence.
How do we know when an observed effect is real or spurious?
Some people say, "A p-value=0.05 is not very much evidence against the null hypothesis." Well then, how much evidence is it?
pr(B|A) ≠ 1 – pr(A|B). Why do we act like it ?!
For too long statisticians have been peddling pr(data|hypothesis) when scientists [indeed all of us] want pr(hypothesis|data).